Alcoa AA Earnings Analysis

Revenue Analysis

Total and Operating Revenue: Over the last three years, the total revenue saw fluctuations from $2.67 billion in 2023 Q3 to a slight increase to $2.599 billion by 2023 Q4, then slightly decreasing to $2.599 billion by 2024 Q1. This suggests a relatively stable revenue stream on a quarterly basis.

Gross Profit Margins: Gross profit margin had a variation with $266 million in 2023 Q3 reaching a high of $195 million by 2024 Q1, suggesting a decrease in cost efficiency concerning revenue generation.

Cost Management

Cost of Revenue: The cost of revenue was maintained at high levels ranging from $2.404 billion to $2.515 billion, indicating significant production costs associated with AA’s operations.

Operating Expense: Operating expenses have shown considerable variability, from $211 million in 2023 Q3 to $309 million in 2023 Q4 and then decreased to $232 million by 2024 Q1, indicating fluctuating operational spending.

Total Expenses: Similarly, total expenses have also seen variations, potentially reflecting changes in operational strategy or market conditions throughout the periods.

Profitability Analysis

EBITDA: EBITDA ranged from negative values, signaling operational difficulties, especially notable with -$137 million by 2024 Q1. Strategic challenges might be affecting profitability metrics.

Operating Income: Operating income moved from -$95 million in 2023 Q3 to -$37 million by 2024 Q1, potentially signaling a small improvement in operational efficiency.

Pretax Income: Similar to operating income, pretax income showcased negative outcomes, from -$228 million in 2023 Q3 to -$325 million by 2024 Q1, remaining a concern.

Net Income: Net income reflects consistent losses with -$168 million in 2023 Q3 and significant widening to -$252 million by 2024 Q1.

Cash Flow Indicators

Reconciled Depreciation: Reconciled depreciation amounts were consistently high, which indicates significant capital expenditure linked to fixed assets.

Interest Expense: Interest expense was constant, reflecting ongoing financial obligations not significantly altering over the examined periods.

Taxation

Tax Rate: The tax rates varied, with some quarters exhibiting different rates due to abnormal income or deductions.

Tax Provision: The tax provision had significant variances, from $22 million in credit to $150 million by 2023 Q4, reflecting varying profitability and tax strategies.

Tax Effect of Unusual Items: The tax effects were notably impactful in specific quarters, indicating the importance of unusual items on taxable income.

Shareholder Metrics

Diluted and Basic EPS: The Earnings Per Share (EPS) indicated consistent losses throughout the periods, with declines reaching up to -$1.41 by 2024 Q1.

Average Shares: The average number of shares stayed consistent, suggesting no major buybacks or dilution events.

Net Income Available to Common Stockholders: This metric also confirmed consistent losses across the examined quarters.

Conclusion

AA’s financial results from the last three years exhibit consistent revenue levels but with increasing costs leading to operational inefficiencies. High and stable depreciation costs, alongside consistently high interest expenses, are impacting cash flows. The profitability metrics and EPS trends indicate that strategic revisions might be necessary to curb loss-making trends and improve operational performance.

Appendices

Supporting data tables and calculation references are omitted here for brevity but were used extensively in the generation of this analysis.