Earnings Analysis for MRNA
Revenue Analysis:
Total Revenue and Operating Revenue: MRNA showed fluctuation in total revenue over the observed period, increasing from $1.78 billion in Q3 2023 to $2.81 billion in Q4 2023, before dropping to $167 million in Q1 2024. Operating revenue followed a similar trend.
Gross Profit Margin: Gross profit varied significantly, with a loss of $454 million in Q3 2023 but a profit of $1.88 billion in Q4 2023, then sharply decreasing to $71 million in Q1 2024.
Cost Management:
Cost of Revenue: Cost of revenue was consistently high relative to revenue, particularly in Q3 2023 ($2.24 billion) and Q4 2024 ($929 million).
Operating Expense: Operating expenses were highest in Q4 2023 at $1.88 billion, decreasing to $1.34 billion in Q1 2024. The main components include R&D and SG&A expenses.
Total Expenses: Total expenses were considerably high, reaching $3.8 billion in Q3 2023, significantly impacting profitability.
Profitability Analysis:
EBITDA: EBITDA was negative (-$1.69 billion) in Q3 2023, then positive ($278 million) in Q4 2023, and declined again to -$1.12 billion in Q1 2024.
Operating Income: Mirrored EBITDA trends with -$2.01 billion in Q3 2023, barely positive in Q4 2023, and deeply negative (-$1.27 billion) in Q1 2024.
Pretax Income: Pretax results improved from -$1.95 billion in Q3 2023 to $70 million in Q4 2023, before deteriorating to -$1.17 billion in Q1 2024.
Net Income: Net income ranged from a loss of $3.63 billion in Q3 2023, to a profit of $217 million in Q4 2023, and back to a loss of $1.17 billion in Q1 2024.
Cash Flow Indicators:
Reconciled Depreciation: Saw an incremental increase from $249 million in Q3 2023 to $202 million in Q4 2023, and a reduction to $36 million in Q1 2024.
Interest Expense: Interest expenses remained stable over the period, reflecting controlled financial management despite fluctuating revenues and profits.
Taxation:
Tax Rate: Varied across the quarters from 21% initially and then utilized in calculations up to 21% in later quarters. Effective tax rate shows minor variations.
Tax Provision: Changed significantly, from a charge of $167.2 million in Q3 2023, credit of $147 million in Q4 2023, to a charge of $10 million in Q1 2024.
Tax Effect of Unusual Items: Ranging from -$7.77 million in Q3 2023 to -$6 million in Q1 2024.
Shareholder Metrics:
Diluted and Basic EPS: EPS saw a significant range, from -$9.53 in Q3 2023, appreciating to $0.55 in Q4 2023, and then falling to -$3.07 in Q1 2024.
Average Shares: Diluted average shares increased slightly but stayed generally around 381 million to 395 million shares across the periods.
Net Income Available to Common Stockholders: Reflected the net losses or profits for each period given the EPS trends.
Conclusion:
MRNA has experienced substantial volatility in its financial results across the examined periods with significant swings in profitability, revenue, and expense management. The dramatic fluctuations in net income highlight potential operational challenges or market conditions affecting performance. Moving forward, focusing on stabilizing costs and improving operational efficiency could be beneficial. Investors should closely monitor subsequent quarters for signs of either continued instability or recovery.